The practical framework that tells you whether to build—or walk away.
The $17,000 Question
You've got an idea. Living in your head for weeks. Maybe months.
You've already imagined the features. The logo. The launch post on Hacker News.
Here's the problem: Most startups fail. Not because founders are dumb. Not because they don't work hard. Because they build something nobody actually wants—and they don't find out until months later when nobody buys.
The worst part? You could've known in weeks. For the price of a nice dinner.
This guide gives you three validation tiers. Each builds on the last. Choose your budget.
TL;DR — Choose Your Path
| Tier | Name | Best For | Cost | Time | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scout | Testing on the side | $0 | 20-40 hrs | Low |
| 2 | Probe | Ready to measure demand | $500 | 10-20 hrs | Medium |
| 3 | Deep Dive | Going full-time | $5,000 | 5-15 hrs | High |
Recommended: Week 1-2 → $0 | Week 3-4 → $500 | Week 5-6 → $5,000
Most solo indie hackers stop at Tier 2. Only Tier 3 if you're seeing strong signals and about to invest serious time/money.
Who This Is For (And Not For)
This guide is for you if:
- You're an indie hacker, solo founder, or developer
- You want to validate a SaaS, tool, or micro-SaaS idea
- You're testing ideas while employed or bootstrapping
This guide is NOT for you if:
- You need enterprise market research
- You're raising VC funding and need investor decks
- Your idea is a hardware or physical product
How This Guide Defines Validation
Validation isn't about proof—it's about signals.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Signal | Evidence that people care about a problem (conversations, search volume, signups) |
| Proof | Evidence that people will pay and stay (revenue, retention, PMF) |
| Strong signal | 20+ relevant threads, 3%+ landing page conversion, prepayment/deposit conversions |
| Weak signal | <5 threads, <1% conversion, vague interest |
This guide helps you find signals. Proof comes from building and getting real users.
The Reality
Startup failure rates are often cited as high as 90%.
The killer isn't competition. It's building before validating.
Tier 1: The "Scout" ($0)
Cost: $0 | Time: 20-40 hours | Confidence: Low
Gathering signals. Not proof.
What You Can Do for Free
1.1 Reddit & Community Mining
This is free—but it's not easy. Most people do it wrong.
Where to search (ranked by value):
| # | Community | Members | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | r/SaaS | 234K+ | B2B SaaS founders |
| 2 | r/startups | 1.4M+ | General startup discussion |
| 3 | r/indiehackers | 300K+ | Bootstrapped founders |
| 4 | Hacker News | — | Technical founders |
| 5 | Industry Subreddits | Varies | Your niche |
The Method:
STEP 1: Search your problem
• "[your problem]"
• "[your problem] alternative"
• "best [category] tool"
STEP 2: Count signals (6 months)
• 0-5 threads = Weak
• 5-20 threads = Moderate
• 20+ threads = Strong
STEP 3: Read the complaints
→ Get exact language they use
STEP 4: Find the gap
→ What do they hate? What's missing?
Want this automated? Paste your idea → ValidSpark gives you exactly which keywords to search and which pain-point threads are already ranking.
Example (illustrative):
A founder searched r/SaaS for "invoice" and found dozens of threads complaining that tools were too complex for small teams. No simple option existed.
Result: They built a simple invoicing tool → got to first paying customers.
What to look for:
- Repeated complaints about the same issue
- People seeking alternatives to popular tools
- Workarounds and manual processes
- Pricing complaints
DO:
- "Has anyone found a simple invoicing tool for agencies? Everything is overkill."
- "Struggling with [problem]. Current solution is [X]. Anyone else?"
DON'T:
- "Would anyone use this?" (hypotheticals lie)
- "Would you pay for this?" (everyone says yes)
- Share your solution before understanding the problem
1.2 The 5-Question Survey (Free)
Create a Google Form. 5 questions. Under 5 minutes.
The Questions:
| # | Question | Response Type |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | What is the #1 challenge you face with [problem]? | Open text |
| 2 | How do you currently solve this? | Manual / Excel / Paid / Nothing |
| 3 | Time spent weekly? | <1hr / 1-5 / 5-10 / 10+ |
| 4 | What would you pay? | Free / <$10 / $10-30 / $30-100 / $100+ |
| 5 | What MUST it include? | Open text |
Distribution: Subreddits, LinkedIn groups, Twitter/X, Indie Hackers
Target: 50+ responses minimum.
Red Flags:
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| <30% would pay | Weak market |
| 80% cite different problems | Unclear positioning |
| Generic responses | Wrong audience |
1.3 Landing Page Test ($0)
Build in an afternoon. Carrd.co (free) or Vercel.
Structure:
HEADLINE: [The simplest way to] [desired outcome]
SUBHEADLINE: Stop [pain]. Start [result].
3 BENEFITS:
• [Benefit 1]
• [Benefit 2]
• [Benefit 3]
CTA: Join waitlist
[Email] [Submit]
Traffic: Subreddits, Twitter/X, Indie Hackers, Hacker News
Want a quick landing page + report? Paste your idea → ValidSpark generates both in minutes. Try free →
The Benchmark:
| Signup Rate | Verdict | Action |
|---|---|---|
| <1% | Bad | Wrong audience / weak problem |
| 1-3% | Okay | Iterate OR move to Tier 2 |
| 3-5% | Good | Strong signal |
| >5% | Excellent | Real market |
1.4 Credit Card Swipe ($0 + Stripe)
Collect money before you build.
How:
- Stripe "pre-order" or "founder discount"
- 50% off lifetime if they pay now
- "Pay Now" instead of "Join Waitlist"
Meaning:
| Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Email signup | "Maybe interested" |
| Pre-payment | "Actually interested" |
$0 Tier — Verdict
You learn: Problem awareness, initial interest, language patterns
You DON'T learn: Actual payment, market size, competition
Essential but insufficient. If you only do free validation, you're gambling with months of your time.
Tier 2: The "Probe" ($500)
Cost: $500 | Time: 10-20 hrs | Confidence: Medium
Buying numbers. Not opinions.
2.1 Paid Traffic Test ($200-400)
The math:
- Minimum: 200 visitors
- Target CPA: <$5/email
-
$10/email = Wrong
Platforms:
| Platform | Best For | CPC |
|---|---|---|
| Reddit Ads | B2B, Niche | $0.50-2.00 |
| Google Ads | Problem keywords | $1-5 |
| Enterprise | $3-10 |
Test headlines:
- A: Problem — "Stop wasting time on [pain]"
- B: Solution — "[Category] for [audience]"
- C: Authority — "The [competitor] alternative"
2.2 Professional Survey ($50-150)
Add these questions:
- How would you feel if [solution] didn't exist? (Very/Somewhat/Not disappointed)
- What do you pay for similar tools?
- What would make you switch?
The Magic Question:
"How would you feel if [category] didn't exist?"
Response Market 40%+ "Very disappointed" Strong 25-40% Moderate <25% Weak (Applied after you have users, not at idea stage.)
2.3 Validation Tools ($0-99)
| Tool | Cost | What |
|---|---|---|
| useSAASkit | Free | Basic validation |
| NicheProwler | $29-99/mo | Competitor analysis |
| ValidateFast | Free | Landing page + validation |
$500 Tier — Verdict
You learn: Demand measurement, pricing signal, CAC, conversion optimization
You DON'T learn: Full competition, feature priorities, retention
$500 is the sweet spot for most indie founders. Real data without serious money.
Tier 3: The "Deep Dive" ($5,000)
Cost: $5,000 | Time: 5-15 hrs | Confidence: High
Buying certainty. For going full-time.
Only for serious builders. Most stop at Tier 2 unless seeing strong signals (e.g., strong landing page conversion or early traction—not the 40% survey metric, which is for post-launch PMF).
3.1 AI Validation Report ($200-500)
- Competitor feature matrix
- Pricing analysis
- Customer review synthesis
- Market demand data
- Gap analysis
- Go/No-Go recommendation
ROI: Manual = 40-80 hrs × $50 = $2,000-4,000 | Tool = $200-500
3.2 Expert Interviews ($1,000-2,000)
Methods: Respondent.io, LinkedIn Survey Ads, Upwork
Script:
1. Walk me through how you solve [problem]. (workarounds)
2. What's the hardest part? (pain points)
3. What would make you switch? (triggers)
4. What's your budget? (numbers)
5. What MUST it have? (non-negotiables)
6. How likely to try new tool? 1-10? (follow up)
Record every call. Transcribe. Look for patterns across 10+ calls.
3.3 Competitive Analysis ($1,000-2,500)
Map: competitors, features, pricing, reviews, positioning, SWOT.
$5,000 Tier — Verdict
You learn: Full landscape, pricing strategy, feature roadmap, go/no-go confidence, investor-ready data
If quitting your job or investing $50K+, $5K validation is the cheapest insurance.
The Complete Matrix
| Factor | $0 | $500 | $5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Time | 20-40 hrs | 10-20 hrs | 5-15 hrs |
| Confidence | Low | Medium | High |
| Data | Qualitative | Quantitative | Comprehensive |
| Best For | Idea | Pre-MVP | Pre-launch |
| Risk | High | Moderate | Low |
The Progression
WEEK 1-2: $0 Scout
│ ├── Reddit mining
│ ├── Survey
│ └── Landing page
│
WEEK 3-4: $500 Probe
│ ├── Paid traffic
│ ├── Professional survey
│ └── Tools
│
WEEK 5-6: $5,000 Deep Dive
├── Validation report
├── Interviews
└── Competitive map
Each answers:
- $0: "Anyone talking about this?"
- $500: "Will anyone pay?"
- $5,000: "How do we win?"
7 Validation Red Flags
| # | Red Flag | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No community discussion | Nobody looking = no market |
| 2 | "Everyone would want this" | Vague = weak |
| 3 | <30% willingness to pay | "Free" users won't pay |
| 4 | "I'll pay later" | Silence = no |
| 5 | No competitors | Terrible market OR missing something |
| 6 | Inconsistent survey answers | Unclear problem |
| 7 | Ignoring negative feedback | Lying to yourself |
When Validation Says "No" — That's a Win
A "no" saves you:
- 3-12 months of development
- $10K-100K in costs
- Emotional toll of building nothing
What to do:
- Try different messaging/audience/pricing first
- Identify the specific "no"
- Try one more angle
- Kill it if needed
Better to validate 10 and build 1.
The Real Math
| Method | Cost | Time | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | $0 | 40 hrs | Low |
| $500 | $500 | 15 hrs | Good |
| $5,000 | $5,000 | 5 hrs | Great |
At $50/hr, 40 hrs = $2,000 opportunity cost. $500 is the sweet spot.
72-Hour Validation Sprint
Day 1: Research (4 hrs)
- Search Reddit (5+ threads = signal)
- 5-question Google Form
- Post in 3 communities
Day 2: Build (4 hrs)
- Landing page on Carrd
- Write 3 headlines
- Email capture
Day 3: Launch (4 hrs)
- Share landing page
- Post on Twitter/X
- Send to network
After 72 hours:
| Signups | Verdict |
|---|---|
| <10 | Weak |
| 10-50 | Moderate → $500 |
| 50+ | Strong |
Limitations of This Method
Know the limits:
- Sampling bias: Reddit/Hacker News users skew technical. Your real market may differ.
- Subreddit rules: Some communities ban surveys or promotions.
- Survivorship bias: Success stories are overrepresented. Failed founders don't post.
- Self-reported data: Survey answers ≠ actual behavior.
- Community size: Small niches may not have active communities.
Use these methods as signals, not guarantees. The goal is to reduce risk, not eliminate it.
FAQ
Q: How do I find my first 10 customers before building?
Start with Reddit mining. Then use your landing page to collect emails. Reach out directly to signups—they're your warmest leads.
Q: Can I validate without spending any money?
Yes—but see Tier 1 limitations. The real cost is time (20-40 hours) and opportunity cost.
Q: What if my niche has no community?
That's your first signal. Either find a related community OR question the idea.
Q: How long should I validate before giving up?
- Tier 1: 2 weeks max
- Tier 2: 3-4 weeks max
- After: found something OR spinning
Q: What if I get mixed signals?
Mixed = No. Try a different approach or idea.
Q: How do I know if my idea is too niche?
Check Google Trends and community threads. <5 threads + <100 searches/month = too small.
Q: Do I need to validate every idea?
No. Validate enough to find ONE with strong signals. Then go all in.
Choose Your Tier
| Situation | Start |
|---|---|
| Employed, testing | $0 |
| Ready to measure | $500 |
| Going full-time | $5,000 |
Rule: Validate enough to build with confidence—or fail fast enough to try again.
What ValidSpark Does (And Doesn't Do)
We DO:
- Paste your idea → get keywords + pain-point threads
- See competitor features, pricing, gaps
- Get market demand data + trends
- Read customer evidence from reviews
We DON'T:
- Guarantee product-market fit
- Invent ideas for you
- Replace talking to real customers
Ready to Validate?
The difference between successful founders and failed ones isn't luck. It's validating before building.
ValidSpark gives you market intelligence in minutes—not weeks:
- Paste your idea → get keywords + pain-point threads
- See competitor features, pricing, and gaps
- Get market demand data + search trends
- Read customer evidence from reviews and forums
References
- Exploding Topics - Startup Failure Rate Statistics
- Sean Ellis - The Survey That Measures Product/Market Fit
Last updated: February 2026
This guide is part of our validation series. Coming soon: "Reddit Mining Templates," "Landing Page Benchmarks by Niche," "The Credit Card Pre-Sell Method."